Tony Blair is not the only leading warmonger to be having a somewhat rocky ride of late. His big buddy George W is also not having things his own way at the minute either. Bush's approval rating has fallen by 20 points in his heartland southern states in recent weeks. A crucial factor is that it is increasingly difficult for even the most devoted Bush/Blair sycophants to claim that the occupation of Iraq is seen as liberating by the majority of the Iraqi people. The increasingly rocky US economy is another factor. Terry Conway from Socialist Resistance discussed these developments with anti-war activist and author MIKE MARQUSEE. Marqusee is an American who has lived and been politically active in Britain since /97l. He retains strong links with the American left in general and the anti-war movement in particular. Marqusee explained that there are a number of factors that n some ways give the unraveling situation in Iraq has ia deeper effect on politics in America than in Britain.
Firstly, the US administration did nothing to prepare people for the fact that there might be any opposition to their presence. Those people in the military and the government who wanted a more cautious approach, who thought there needed to be contingency plans for a long-term occupation and potential resistance to it were rudely brushed aside in the tidal wave of neo-conservative ascendancy in Bush's White House. Some were demoted, while •• others were just ignored in the cacophony Because of the so-called Federal system, of Cheney, Rice and the rest baying for the war for oil.
This single-mindedness is beginning to backfire and Bush's showing in the polls is suffering partially as a result.
Secondly, the US armed forces are rather different to the British ones. Of course they have a much larger military presence, but that is not the main issue. The US military is much more representative of the society as a whole, whereas the British forces are much more a professional caste
"Most of those in Iraq are reservists," said Marqusee "and often left well paid jobs to go and do what they saw as their patriotic obligation. Often they were people leaving jobs where they were paid $60,000 and now getting $18,000. Then they saw their tours of duty extended from on high, and increasing risks of being killed or seriously injured.
"This is what has led to the development of a strong campaign amongst the military and their families in the States [see box] that is unlike anything we see in Britain."
There are other issues causing difficulties for Bush too. One is the massive Federal deficit and fiscal crisis facing most of the states, which is leading to public sector workers being sacked and services being slashed.
But says Marqusee: "while the main responsibility for this lies with the Bush administration, this is not always apparent. people often blame the local states rather than central government."
These developments pose a particularly sharp challenge for the US anti-war movement. Too often sections of the US left, including key parts of social movements such as the black movement and the women's movement, have failed the challenge of political independence and have believed their salvation lies with the Democrats.
Marqusee explains the fortunate position of United for Peace and Justice (UFPJ, one of the important anti-war coalitions, especially on the East Coast.
"There has been a big discussion about this as the next Presidential election is already in people's sights.
The irony is that what has protected the vital independence of UFPJ is some of the more apolitical and cautious affiliates. Because they have charitable status, they are not allowed to support any political party or candidate."
And of course this time round the pressure is enormous: 'anyone but Bush' seems to make sense to many activists. Howard Dean's campaign for the Democratic nomination is undoubtedly very popular with anti-war activists.
But as Marqusee says: "We need an autonomous anti-war movement, whoever is elected next time round."
The anti-war movement in the US is folwith fascination and will have been cheering with
when Campbell resigned.
A push on both sides of the Atlantic against our respective warmongers will be stronger if we are able to deepen the links in the months ahead. From the soldiers of the 2nd