to chaos and unpredictability in world politics. America is indeed involved in a global gamble: it is unleashing forces that it cannot control and whose consequences cannot be predicted. What will happen in Iraq? Will America launch new wars soon? How will the war affect Europe? Is the US now alltriumphant and undefeatable? And what does all this mean for the anti-war movement and the emergence of the new left? PHIL HEARSE reports.
Officially, American leaders argue • that the key question is whether
western-style liberal democracy can be installed - in other words whether the United States can be seen as really creating an independent, self-governing and democratic state.
But in reality, their solution is a throwback to 19th century colonialism of the kind practised in India by the British, or by Belgium in The Congo. Iraq is the US's Jewel in the Crown.
Democracy in Iraq is absolutely impossible. Any kind of independent and democratic Iraq requires a 'rebuilding' which creates an independent economy and a civil society - a base of support for the new democratic order. It requires, in other words, the US to do what it did in Germany and Japan after the Second World War - real independent capitalist nation-building. America cannot allow this.
First, the US must have control, directly or indirectly, of Iraq's fabulous oil reserves. Irag is the one country where huge proven unexploited reserves exist which can be a new factor in staving off the coming oil crisis - a predicted shortfall of 20 percent between world production and demand by 2020.
To fuly exploit these reserves requires an
stimated 535 billion in investment. US
companies ame mum gong o aur that mone
NO.NO TO AMERICAN DCCUPATION FORCES in without sure-fire security guarantees. In a situation where the Saudi regime is brittle and under threat, the US needs control of Iraqi oil
Secondly, the neoliberal agenda is not going to permit a developed Iraqi industry, which prevents American firms dominating the economy. You can forget independent Iraqi economic development, and thus you can forget a broad base of support for a new regime.
Instead the US will try to do what it did in Afghanistan - install a ragbag collection of tribal chiefs and right-wing exiles to cobble together a government under US tutelage. American troops will be off the streets as soon as possible', but a substantial military presence in new bases will continue, as well as DynCorp's private police force.
This means a thwarted Iraqi nation, gigantic opposition to the US presence and permanent political instability with the unleashing of a real national struggle.
So far, it is clear that there is only one force that is a serious contender for the leadership of that struggle - the cadres of Shiite Islam, organised by the mosque and aided by Iran. As in Iran under the Shah, only the mosque could escape the repression and provide a focus for opposition. There are now no other real organised political forces on the ground, left or right.
All this, as numerous commentators have pointed out, is the USA's worst nightmare. It threatens to drag the United States into a •prolonged and costly Iraq conflict which will be much more difficult to win than the justcompleted war.
Will the US now proceed to attack Syria and North Korea? North Korea has a huge arsenal, including probably a few nuclear weapons - and vitally thousands of missiles which can obliterate the 'kill box' around the South Korean capital Seoul and wreak huge damage to Japan. This makes an attack on North Korea highly unlikely in the fore seeable future.
The current threats against Syria probably presage something different from all-out invasion, namely a narrower return to the "war against terrorism'. Syria and Iran are the key backers of Hizbollah, the Islamist group in southern Lebanon which has repeatedly shown its ability to hit Israel
Given the Bush team's love affair with Israel, it wants to knock out Hizbollah for good. The US is telling Assad junior in Damascus to stop backing anti-Israeli armed groups.
This could mean US action against Hizbollah, but more likely the US wants Syria to close down Hizbollah bases in the Bek'aa valley and elsewhere in Lebanon. But war against Syria would cause huge outcry, break the alliance with Blair and create GO AWAY AFROM IRAD another set of massive problems, which the resources currently devoted to Iraq do not permit the US to deal with.
In any case, Bush is not going to stop playing the international terrorism card. Various analysts have argued that after the Irag war the American president will return to domestic issues because of elections on the horizon. Despite the scale of the American anti-war movement, George Bush has scored his highest opinion-poll ratings ever through the Iraq war.
The US economy, as everyone knows, is in retreat with its awful toll of bankruptcies, the blow-out of finance-based giant firms and airlines, and the terrible damage done to the savings and pensions of ordinary Americans. Why concentrate on this when the media can be made to concentrate on international politics and 'terrorism', in its charac teristic manner of crazed 'US first' patriotUS Special Forces are establishing new bases worldwide. For example, they now have a special task force of 2000 in Djibouti, • •••• from which operations against 'terrorists can be launched against targets in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. Many other and newer bases now exist in Central Asia since the bombing of Afghanistan.
In the short-term, we can expect anti-terAs protests gather against the continued US presence, the main task of the "interim government" and Iraq's US military governor Jay Garner is to secure the oilfields and make certain that the oil and the revenue will flow rapidly into US coffers. This means a thwarted Iraqi nation, gigantic opposition to the US presence and permanent political instability with the unleashing of a real national struggle.
... rorist raids, operations to capture wanted individuals - in other words operations short of all-out war, but ones which keep the anti-terrorist message before the American people, in preparation for the coming presidential elections
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