The Bush administration commitcertainty regarding its outcome, betting like a poker player on his lucky star or trusting to divine intervention. The latter is more likely indeed in light of the religious devotion that is commonly attributed to the US president, a man who has so much in common with Osama bin Laden.
It is basic common sense to always plan for the worst-case scenario. But in its arrogance, Washington assumed it would have a quick victory against Iraq in which the occupying US forces would be received as an army of liberation and easily control the country. One of the keys of this best-case scenario, promised by the pro-US fraction of the Iraqi opposition which found all too willing believers in Washington, was a turnabout by the Iraqi army, which would then become the principal lever of a new regime ... which pledged its allegiance to Washington.
However so far things have turned out rather differently. The first reason for this is that the political difficulties of the Bush-Blair tandem - above all the massive upsurge of the world-wide anti-war movement, in particular in Britain and in the United States - forced Washington to delay the start of the war, and to reinforce even more its military deployment for fear of facing a protracted Wale
The delay, especially given the climatic difficulties which are expected during April, precipitated the ground offensive launched almost at the same time as the bombing campaign. In 199l, by contrast, Washington subjected the Iraqi army to more than five weeks of very intensive bombardment before it sent in troops
And this meant that forces of the Iraqi regime were much more disposed to fight at the time when the ground offensive started. Certainly much more than in 199l, when those who had survived the air camtroops. terribly friendly to them, that is when they stood is that the Iraqi people -reasons to hate them even more.. T they are still suffering the genocidal sanctions imposed by Washington and London, could they trust as liberators an alliance of sponsor of the Israeli State and principal paign were exhausted and stupefied, and surrendered en masse to the coalition
For its part, the Iraqi population has surprised the occupying forces by not being are not overtly hostile. What the rulers in Washington and London had not underwhich has so many reasons to hate Saddam Hussein — has, at the same time, some powerful
The Iraqis remember in the way in which the coalition delivered them up to Saddam Hussein in 1991 at the end of the Gulf War. Twelve years later oppressor of the area? with the complicity of their partners in the United Nations Security Council. How the former British colonial power with the
their desire to
cities.
The fall of Saddam Hussein's regime will certainly be greeted with relief by many Iraqis, but not being stupid, they also know that an occupation by Britain and the US is not a desirable fate. They understand that Washington and London are motivated by
Play their hands on Iraq's resources not by concern for the happiness of its people.
So it will probably be extremely difficult for Washington to set up a puppet Iraqi government, able to control the Iraqi inte
Prior situation by means of its own, indigenous forces even if the United States establishes long term military bases in the country, as they intend. And everybody understands that it would be highly perilous for US and British troops to be stationed durably in the interior of the
The difficulties for Washington and London have only just begun. It is up to us
up to the anti-war movement, to worsen them still more. George W Bush, Tony Blair and all their sup porters must be made to pay a very high price for their war of agres sIon Already the battle for the imme diate, total and unconditional withdrawal of the troops of the coalition from
the Iraqi territory looks promising. We
must also call for free and democratic
elections for the Iraqi people, without the intimidation of occupying troops, and for self-determination for the Kurdish population of Iraq - but also the Kurds of Iran, Syria and Turkey.
24 March. • This is a translation of an article writ ten for Rouge, weekly paper of the LCR,