The Brown bounce is now a central feature of British politics.
Taken alongside new Labour's strong showing in the Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections, where the Tories came third behind Labour and the Lib Dems, it has made a snap general election a near certainty.
Of course it means what we mean by "snap". The is issue is whether it will be in the autumn of this year or the spring of next year depending on Brown's assessment of the durability of the "bounce" and when the problems are likely to set in. October of this year must still be a possibility since from Brown's point of view he is riding high and things can only go downwards from here.
The crisis of the Tory Party is absolutely profound and they would be in complete disarray if faced with an Local Respect activity has dwindled in many areas
Brown aims for the continuation of all the main features of New Labour: deregulation, privatisation, the war, the replacement of Trident, the new relationship with the employers, and the old relationship with the USA.
On civil rights Brown is
only proposing yet another terrorism bill, but is re-raising the issue of detention without trial and its extension from the current 28 day to the originally proposed 90.
But an election in the next year, whatever month it is held, would also be a huge challenge for the left and in particular for Respect. During the summer Respect did extremely well in winning a hotly contested preparation and no local base.
The lesson from Southall is that whilst Respect has hung on to its anti-war vote in East London, and no doubt this is the case in Birmingham and several other places, it has not reached out into new areas or generalised its electoral influence across the country.
This is a major problem with a general election and the GLA election round the corner. If Respect does not start an effective election campaign now it could face disaster in a year's time.
In fact far from preparing itself for a huge campaign Respect has declined as an organisation over the past two years- despite warnings from some of us who argued as best we could at the last Respect conference that this was a problem.
Then the leadership denied or tried to minimise the importance of the decline in membership and the withering of branches outside of key target areas. But the problem was real, and it is no better now.
The lesson from Southall is that Respect cannot win in a new constituency unless it has built a base well in advance - and that means establishing a viable and active local branch before the election and afterwards.
As we remarked in our last issue (SR 46) despite a discussion at its last National Council on the failure of the McDonnell campaign and the crisis of the Labour left, and despite a number of suggestions ways that Respect could respond to the situation, the organisation's leadership took no initiative.
Yet the failure of the beyond its present stage without winning from the Labour and trade union left. It cannot be successful in the medium to long term unless it wins the best sections of the trade unions into its orbit.
The much-vaunted Fighting Unions conference also lacked focus and failed to make any progress on this key issue: we need a far more targeted, engaging and inclusive approach if we are to succeed in the unions.
At the moment the RMT is considering whether to stand union candidates in the GLA elections. Respect should do everything it can to reach an accommodation with the RMT which would avoid such a clash.
We have to convince the trade union left - and than means people like RMT General Secretary Bob Crow - that there is a democratic space within which they can function and have an influence. We cannot simply say "here is Respect, it is the best thing around (which is certainly true) and you should join it or affiliate to it".
We have to accept that Respect is a start, but only a start in building a genuinely broad left wing alternative to New Labour.
If Respect is to mount a serious challenge in the general election the following is crucial:
• Respect needs to build itself as a national organisation. This means having much more of a national profile. It also means much more attention to building local branches. It needs effective fund-raising.
• It must have an elected leadership which is seen to