Local elections in England next month seem certain to deepen the electoral decline of New Labour as an unpopular government drags down its candidates in counties and cities across the country.
Councils budgets have been facing a twoway squeeze from central government, with stiff targets for performance coupled with inadequate increases in central government funding and a 5 percent "cap" on council tax increases this year, which the majorty of councils have complied with, delivering an average 4.2 percent increase, while ministers have allowed 35 councils to exceed the target without penalty.
Many councils have resorted to steep increases in charges for care services, especially to older clients and people with mental health problems or learning disabilities, as a means to raise income and keep down council tax.
Northumberland council has bumped up charges for domiciliary care by a hefty 33 percent, meals on wheels by 25 percent and doubled charges for transport to care services.
Nottinghamshire has hiked home care charges by 34 percent while Blackburn has slapped a 40 percent increase on meals on wheels.
Public Finance magazine surveyed 48 councils, of which 26 are set to increase home care by an average of 23 percent -While Lambeth council is clobbering older residents with a savage 132 percent increase in home care from E7.55 to £17.50 per hour), 54 percent on meals on wheels and new fees for formerly free day centres.
Only clients assessed as in "critical" condition will be eligible for any social care from Lambeth: the policy is designed to milk money from social care to fund policies on crime and youth.
Richmond on Thames is planning to almost quadruple its charges for day centres Trom 25.20 per day to E20.
Councillors plainly feel they can get away with these policies seeing social care as a soft target and exploiting a lack of local activism and resistance.
While New Labour faces cynical challenges from Cameron's Tories and from the Lib Ders and Green Party, the challenge from the left is severely muted, as Respect continue. continues with its focus on standing a minimum number of candidates in carefully selected areas, leaving many towns and cities without any high profile campaign.
The Respect website - much of which is horribly out of date - gives no useful information on the organisations campaigns around this year's elections, but appears more preoccupied with a selection meeting this month in London for GLA elections that do not take place for more than a year.
Respect's lack of any national publication also makes it difficult to mobilise support to reinforce those campaigns which are being waged, most significantly in Preston (where sitting councillor Michael Lavelette is fighting for re-election) and Birmingham (where the aim is to expand the electoral base established by Salma Yaqoob), with more speculative campaigns in Sheffield, Manchester, Sunderland and Portsmouth.
With Respect supporters in much of the country forced to observe the local elections take shape without any opportunity to intervene even in a propaganda way with a hard hitting publication, the continued loss of morale and momentum seems likely to he will announce a date for the withdrawal of British troops from Iraq, and signal a change the relationship with George Bush.
It seems unlikely on the face of it, but Jonathan Steele in the Guardian (March 30) thinks otherwise. He argues that political changes taking place in the US could lead him to do it. The US Congress is now against the war as is a majority of the US population.
Within months of Brown becoming Prime Minister Bush will be gone and there could be a Democratic President pledged to some kind of withdrawal from Iraq however incomplete.
Apart from Hilary Clinton - who currently calls for the withdrawal of US troops to a line north of Baghdad and the ending of combat missions to Iraqi cities every Democratic presidential contender who supported the war has apologised and has switched to opposition. achieve. Cameron is now trying to be more new Labour than new Labour itself, whilst moving its left of on issues such as climate change (which is not very difficult) and even law and order.
The problem the Tories have in presenting themselves as a clone of new Labour is that potential supporters might in the end prefer the real thing rather than an opportunist adaptation.
The other problem is that Cameron's attempt to present himself as middle of the road is a complete fraud. He is a toff who was educated at Eaton College and Brasenose Oxford and came up through the Tory right.
He was special adviser to Michael Howard and Norman Lamont in the 1990s. He was the architect of the Tory manifesto in the last election.
This does not make him a very convincing man of the
Nor does his opportunism endear him to the Tory estab-