THE RECENT dispute between Russia and Ukraine over the sale of Russian gas to the latter may seem at first glance to be little more than haggling over prices between two states in the international global market.
What started the dispute however was Russia's insistence that Ukraine pay the going market rate rather than a subsidised rate for Russian gas. Russia could and has claimed that it was simply following World Trade Organization guidelines in relation to the Ukraine.
This is undoubtedly true but Russia has continued to sell subsidised gas to neighbouring Belarus which it still considers an ally. The Russian gas subsidy to neighbouring republics including Ukraine was itself a hangover from the days of the Soviet Union. The gas subsidies continuing after the break-up whilst Russia remained on relatively good terms with other former Soviet Union republics.
Recently though, national and regional antagonisms have developed between the Russian and Ukrainian ruling classes largely as a consequence of the western backed "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine during 2004. What must therefore be examined is the role of the US and the European imperialist powers in stirring up such antagonisms in the region. US objective
The major regional aim of the US is to isolate Russia politically, economically and millarily. The central means for achieving this being the integration of the former Warsaw Pact states as well as the former Soviet Republics on Russia's western border into Nato and the EU. If this aim was to come to fruition then Ukraine would come to form the eastern border of Nato and the EU.
Paradoxically the cheap gas provided by Russia may well have helped Ukraine in its transition to a capitalist economy. Sections of the Ukrainian media went as far as to accuse Russia of wanting to recover lost influence by bankrupting the Ukrainian economy through raising gas prices. Russia would then be in a position to take over key Ukrainian industries including the Ukrainian pipeline at knockdown prices.
Russia holds over one quarter of the world's gas reserves and this therefore gives the country a substantial amount of leverage, at least in a European context. Global energy reserves in the form of coal, gas and oil are finite but the global demand is increasing particularly with the growth of the Chinese and Indian economies
If the 19th century saw a scramble amongst the Imperialist powers for colonies the 21st century could well see a similar scramble but for control of energy reserves.
The US/UK invasion of Iraq and the continuing threats against Iran form a part of this imperialist scramble, as was the failed US backed coup in 2002 to overthrow Hugo Chavez in oil rich Venezuela.
Russia hardly faces the prospect of invasion or an internal western backed coup. The country does though face the long term possibility of economic marginalisation. Lives shortened
A major consequence of capitalist restoration in Russia has been a decrease in life expectancy caused by greater poverty and the virtual destruction of the socialised health system that existed in the days of the Soviet Union. Combined with a declining birth rate this means that the Russian population will decrease and that the Russian economy will contract. Gas may well come to take on a more important role in the Russian economy as it will increasingly be required for foreign rather than domestic consumption.
If current trends continue it is estimated that by 2020 the European Union will need to import about two thirds of its energy and about three quarters of its gas.
One way to reduce external dependence that has been mooted in Britain and other European countries has been greater use of now discredited nuclear energy with all the toxic waste and other environmental problems that entails.
In any event a compromise agreement has been worked out between Russia and Ukraine that will last for the next five years so temporarily the gas dispute appears to have been Russia hardly faces the prospect of invasion or an internal western backed coup resolved. Despite these further disputes between Russia and Ukraine around the supply of gas or other issues is likely as the ruling classes of both countries will whip up national chauvinist sentiments when and where it is in their interests to do so.