Forthcoming parliamentary elections in both Israel and The Palestinian Authority (PA) have produced political upheaval in both societies. The question is, do these developments represent any real political change?
In Israel, the election of Amir Peretz as leader of the Labour Party has led directly to the decision of Ariel Sharon to quit the Likud in order to establish his own party.
In the PA the Fatah "old guard" attempted to reverse the outcome of primary elections which placed younger activists in leading places on the party list. This has provoked a split in the party and gun battles between the various factions.
Amir Peretz is indeed a sharp ConTası to PreVIous Israeli leaders. An immigrant from Morocco, and a resident of the "development town" of Sderot, he is a product of this poorest and most oppressed of Israel's Jewish communities.
Unlike Moroccan political activists, Peretz has based his political career in the middle-class Labour Party, rather than the populist Likud, or any of the several orTAdox or communiarao parties, and was elected leader of the Histadrut (main union body) in 1995. If elected prime minister he will be the first in that position for several decades not to have been a career military officer, and the first non-Ashkenazi Jew to hold the position.
During his entire political career, Amir Peretz has supported negotiations with the Palestinians oraer resolve the national contlict Crucially, his purpose in this 1s to release the state's resources for social provision for the Moroccan and other deprived .Conn nudes
However Peretz is not a radical, and certainly not an anti-Zionist. One of his first acts as Labour leader, before pulling his party out of the calition and triggering new elections, was to instruct the housing mınister, a Labour Few on the left have been tempted to join with Sharon member, to approve the building of several hundred new homes for Jews only in the occupied territories. And he has made it clear that he will take a hard line against any Palestinian armed attacks.
Peretz has appointed former chief of the Israeli securitv service Ami Avalon as a senior advisor. and 1s facing strong pressure "make himself electable" by moving further to the right. Even in Israell electoral terms, it is far from sure that this would win him support wide support, while it could alienate some of his current supporiels
Certainly his reluctance to challenge the security establishment and his resistance to building an extra-parliamentary movement in support of his goals means that he is unllkely to be able to transform the political map in the
Meanwhile, Ariel Sharon's long-expected decision abandon the Likud (which he founded in 1973) and establish his own party has further altered Israel's political landscape.
Sharon has been followed by a long list of political hasbeens and would-bes, including former Labour leader Shimon Peres, who was personally affronted at his defeat by Peretz in the Labour leadership election.
Other prominent Sharon recruits include Haim Ramon, Amir Peretz' predecessor as Histadrut head and a self-proclaimed leftist; and the hardline defence minister, onaul Molaz, wno quit the Likud after polls showed he had no chance of winning its leadership.
Dismayingly Sharon has also won the support of left activist Haim Hanegbi, one of the founders in the 1960s of Matzpen, the first antiZionist organisation in Israel. Hanegbi has consistently supported not merely the establishment of a Palestinian state, but the return Palestinian refugees and the establishment of a unitary, democratic and secular state in the whole of Palestine.
He says he now supports Sharon because "it is possible that...Grandfather Ariel has grasped how useless is the incessant war".
Sharon has always been committed "strong Israel", holding on to as much territory as possible although, unlike the more ideological wing of the Likud, he has not had a rooted religious nationalist attachment to the occupied territories.
For Sharon (as for his political mentor Yitzhak Rabin ten years ago), withdrawal from Gaza was the price necessary to pay in order to maintain Israeli rule over the bulk of the West Bank.
But this does not mean that he would be willing to make the far-reaching concessions necessary ın oraer to appease even minimalist Palestinian demands.
Thus far, although many on the Israeli left may have deluded themselves wIll exaggerated expectations from Amir Peretz, few have been tempted to follow Haim Hanegbi and embrace Sharon, a man they have long viewed as their most implacable foe.
Among the Palestinians, too, there have been internal political ructions. Political prisoner Marwan Barghouti, who emerged as the clear winner in the Fatah primaries, has split from Fatah and established his own party, alMustaqbal (The Future).
Barghouti has been joined by, among others, Jibril Rajoub and Muhammad Dahlan. All three made their names as leaders of the first Intifada. They have been largely supplanted over recent years by the "old guard" -exiled Palestinian activists, the historic leaders of Fatah, who have been able to return since the 1995 Oslo Agreement.
Many of the older leaders, cronies of Arafat and his successor Muhammad Abbas, have a reputation for corruption. When several of them were nominated high places in the Fatah electoral list, instead of youngel activists who had won internal elections, the anger led to this unprecedented split.
It does not appear, however that there is any significant ideological difference between these groups. As with Barghouti's on-again, offagain candidacy for President earlier this year, he seems to be relying on his creditable record as an honest, consistent activist rather than on any clear political platform.
Many observers expect that the two factions will re-unite, either before or after the election, in an attempt to block a threatened Hamas victory. Hamas has just triumphed in municipal elections, and is expected to do well in the parliamentary prospect that worries Israel and its western backers.
The European Union has threatened to cut off aid to the Palestinian Authority Hamas wins the election. If Hamas is even allowed to participate the US Senate has passed a resolution threatening to cut off aid.
While opposing the politics of Hamas, we must support their right to offer themselves for election, and the right of Palestinians to vote for them if they so chose.
The election will also be contested by the new Independent Palestine list headed by Dr Mustafa Barghouti of the Palestine National Initiative who came second in the presidential election, with 20% of the vote.
The new list is backed by respected figures such as PLO founder Dr Haider Abdel Shafi, and lawyer and author Raja Shehadeh. The party calls for "unified, popular,
non- volent Tesistance against the Occupation".
Despite all of the ferment, reflecting the dramatic political backgrouna to boln elections. none of these new initiatives appears to have the potential to resolve the conflict.
Despite SOnne hopeful signs, both Israelis and Palestinians still lack the political leadership which could unite the struggles of both communilics aralılsı oppression and occupation, and for social justice and coexistence. See also: "The End ot Zionism?" Socialist Outlook no 1, Autumn 2003 Socialist Resistance no 22, February 2005