IT IS STILL too early to calculate the scale and impact of the setback suffered by Tony Blair and his henchmen after losing the Commons vote on the issue of 90 days detention without trial.
While Labour MPs went on to rubber-stamp less draconian extensions to police powers, Blair will be concerned by the fact that so many of his own back-benchers stood firm and defied the intense pressure from government whips, ministers, the right wing media, the police and what was portrayed as public opinion.
If his policies can go down to such heavy defeat on an issue over which virtually the whole establishment seemed united, and on which it appeared many of the wider public also agreed, what chance does he have of forcing through the government's hugely unpopular plans for further "modernisation" and privatisation of schools and another round of "radical" reform in the NHS?
The scale and breadth of the back-bench rebellion over Patricia Hewitt's latest plans for reorganising the NHS have taken ministers completely by surprise - forcing a series of embarrassing climbdowns on a package of policies which do not require legislation, and are not formally under discussion in the Commons.
Hewitt's move to merge Primary Care Trusts into fewer, larger, less accountable boules has triggered a revolt reaching the most unlikely quarters: even former Health Secretary Alan Milburn has opportunistically joined the fray, in his case lobbying furiously to defend the future of his own local Darlington PCT against a possible merger into a county-wide body.
In South Yorkshire, influential Labourites including former Europe minister Dennis MacShane have publicly opposed the government's plans for new Independent Sector Treatment Centres which would divert £85 million from the funding of local NHS The old tools and techniques that had allowed Blair to slide through eight years in office without a Commons defeat have not only failed to work: they can never have the same effect for Blair again. Trusts over a 5-year period.
In Oxfordshire former cabinet minister Andrew Smith has been among the near-unanimous all-party onslaught on Hewitt's plans for privatisation and fragmentation of Primary Care Trusts.
Labour backbenchers were tipping off campaigners several days ahead that Hewitt would be compelled to rein back many of her reform proposals.
If the government has lost its authority to this extent on an area of policy which does not require new legislation, it is clear that the prospect of forcing through the new changes in education outlined in Ruth Kelly's recent White Paper - to whoops of delight from the Tories and the dismay of many Labour MPs - must be remote.
The old tools and techniques that had allowed Blair to slide through eight years in office without a Commons defeat have not only failed to work: they can never have the same effect for Blair again.
Blair's credibility, damaged Nothing can revive Blair's lost credibility beyond repair by the lies he told about weapons of mass destruction, has suffered further enduring damage from his continued support to the discredited David Blunkett until his departure, his unremittingly reactionary social policy agenda - which put Blair to the right of even Blunkett on the level of cuts to be inflicted on incapacity benefit - and his apparently messianic determination to force through more privatisation as his "legacy" to future Labour leaders.
As a 'lame duck' Prime Minister, who has already advertised his wish to step down before the next election, Blair is also already feeling the consequences of having sacrificed the powers of patronage which until now have helped him rope in many of the more opportunist layers of backbenchers.
And as a soon to be retiring Prime Minister he has to secure the backing of Labour MPs who very much want to secure their own re-election in a few years time and who do not share any of his confidence that the public will forgive and forget the privatisation of crucial public services.
The Labour rebels did not secure our civil liberties, but they have opened up a chink in the armour of a government that appeared unstoppable.
The question is now not whether the government can be stopped - but who has the political will to build a grassroots opposition strong enough and broad enough to force another defeat.
Unfortunately it seems thatto judge from the recent talks on pensions - the public sector union leaders have made it clear that they preter a shabby compromise with New Labour than to seize on Blair's weakness, fight on and win.
But that should not stop the left and campaigners piling on the pressure for the unions to lead the charge against policies which threaten jobs, services and the very structures of our welfare state.
page 4 of the scan
ON UNISON *SAME FiGHT
UNISON EAVE OUR OLD