In the last 25 years Venezuela has
earned $300 billion in oil revenues.
This would equal the Marshall Plan that the United States used to help rebuild capitalist Europe after World War Two 25 times over.
However it is a society with more than 25 percent unemployment, where more than half the population lives in poverty and 200,000 children survive by begging, crime and street trading. Hugo Chávez was elected president in December 1998 with 57 percent of the vote in a popular reaction against the old parties. He subsequently won 88 percent approval for a new constitution which was more democratic than the old one.
At the time, according to one member of the Venezuelan Movimiento al Socialismo (Socialist Movement) quoted in the French left daily paper Libération, the whole left voted for him. He represented a hope for change with his talk of social justice and struggle against corruption. However it never got beyond talk and since then Chávez has completety divided the country.
It is undeniable that the reformist Chavez government has soreły disappointed his electors who were the very poorest sections of Venezuelan society. Yet these are the people who are turning up at the
mobilisacions in support of the regime. Sharing dangerous enemies: Chávez with Cuban leader Fidel Castro Their opponents are the people and organisations who have condemned half of Venezuelans to live in poverty.
When the military coup against Chávez failed in April the plotters were able to be interviewed by the BBC and unrepentantly declare that they were undeterred and fully intended to stage another coup when the opportunity arose. Trotsky once observed that socialists often pay with their blood for their mercy towards their enemy. Chávez the populist seems keen to prove him right. The entire old ruling class is lined up against him with the exception of a small layer of army officers. Even his vice president has said that the Caracas police force is in the service of the opposition.
Striking workers have been told by their bosses that they will be paid for the days that they are on strike against the government. The main union federation the CTV has a bureaucratic, pro-capitalist leadership which is supporting the attack on the Chávez government.
Chávez held a referendum to try and oust these leaders but unsurprisingly this bureaucratic manoeuvre won little support and now allows the union leadership to paint him as anti-union. It also says something about the relative narrowness of his social base that his convincing electoral victory was not closely related to developments in the organised working class. As far
as one can gather his supporters do not represent a significant force in the unions.
In addition to the alliance between the union leaderships and the employers' confederation Fedecamaras the privately owned radio and TV stations are actively propagandising for the opposition, publicising its rallies and denouncing the government. Rather than shutting them down Chávez's supporters have limited themselves to protesting at their gates. They may regret this generosity in the months to come
It is clear that the bourgeoisie is determined to dispose of the mildly reformist Chávez in the same way that the more reformist Salvador Allende was overthrown in Chile. They are even using the same strategy and during the April coup received open support from the United States
The similarities are stark:
•A general strike called by the bosses relying on a key section of the working class, lorry drivers in Chile and oil workers in
• An attempt to paralyse society and the economy. Oil production is currently on 10 percent of its normal daily 2.7 million barrels.
• Attempts to create 'liberated zones though in contrast to revolutionary liberated zones these are in the more affluent parts of Caracas
• Use of the media to create an atmosphere of tension.
• Using attacks by agents provocateurs
at opposition demonstrations to give their
subsequent violence a defensive or retaliatory character. They also give the army a pretext to intervene and restore the old order. Already a Portuguese national with links to the opposition has been arrested after firing at an opposition demonstration.
The United States has intervened on the side of the opposition this time around too It has supported their calls for an early elec tion unembarrassed by the more obviously flawed election of Bush. Chávez on the other hand has received support from Brazil, Cuba, OPE and a range of Latin -American unions. Much of the Venezuelan left, including the MAS, has been siding with the opposition.
This is obviously a grave error. The bourgeoisie is getting ready to defend its privileges with force of arms and a defeat for the Chávez government will be a defeat for both the Latin American and Venezuelan working class and poor. The concern is that in his desire to conciliate with the old order he will be crushed by it.
His regime is failing to take the obvious defensive measures such as closing down or taking over the hostile broadcasters, disarming and disbanding the police, arming and organising his own supporters, trying to split the rank and file oil and bank workers from their union leaderships.
He is limiting his campaign of self-defence
at the very time the forces of the old cor
rupt Venezuela are extending theirs. The
consequences of this are obvious and seem
likely to lead to a grave defeat.
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