Tony Blair has a problem. To put it war which has little public support and no public enthusiasm.
The level of disaffection on this question is difficult to overestimate. As press officer for the Stop the War Coalition I have been kept extremely busy with requests for information and interviews from the press both in Britain and abroad.
This itself is an indication of the level of opposition to the war. Our recent Stop the War conference had press from Canada, Turkey, Japan, USA, Germany and Italy as well as British press and media. Sky News covered the departure of the Ark Royal from Portsmouth together with live coverage of the conference. The military build-up contrasted with the anti-war opposition.
Something is in the air. Our small office is inundated with requests for speakers, leaflets, posters and information. There is a real need for political argument and discussion.
Public meetings throughout the country are large: Plymouth 650; Turnpike Lane 300; ... ... Carlisle 200; the STW conference 800. Of course all want to discuss the war and the lies and hypocrisy emanating from the govemment propaganda machine.
But into this movement is being sucked all other discontent. The pensions crisis; destruction of the NHS; tube privatisation; low pay; jobs. The cry is 'money for war but for nothing else'.
And this is clearly now a problem for Blair. In the midst of a big economic downturn where savings are being wiped out and on the eve of the free fall in the housing market this government is preparing to spend billions on war.
Everybody sees this. Every day that the arms inspectors reveal that they have found no weapons of mass destruction Bush and Blair despatch another warship, another batch of troops.
By the time you read this there will be close to 250,000 military personnel in the Gulf. War is inevitable.
In the USA opposition to the war, partly inspired by the movement in Britain, is growing strongly. January 18 sawseveral large demonstrations throughout the US with a major rally in Washington that mobilised over 250,000. In Britain Blair faces an even bigger move ment. February 15 looks like producing the largest ever demonstration in British political history.
The police with whom we have
negotiate [Embankment to Hyde Park] expect the march to be bigger than the Mail on Sunday ringing our he could always rely on the Mail. whelmingly opposed.
the route office because they want to do an anti-war piece then you begin to recognise the scale of Blair's problems. I'm sure Blair thought
MPs post bags and emails are full of opposition and dissent. It is said that there is little support for the war in the Cabinet. Certainly the parliamentary party is deeply split and the party in the country overShould the war begin without a furtary action Blair will face an uncertain future. There will be cabinet resignations and a large number of Labour MPs will vote in the Commons against war,
.. . . September 28. And when you get What should I say next, Mr Bush? Blair faces growing tide of opposition to war on Iraq most will not be the usual suspects.
It seems unlikely that Blair could survive in that situation. Blair is not stupid and has some understanding of his own situation but he has sold his soul to Bush and now all he can do is endlessly repeat the Bush line
Every repetition weakens him. The argument was lost around his dossier and further ground has been lost since.
Even with a UN resolution nearty 40% of the general public are still opposed and that percentage will be considerably higher among Labour party members. Many will tear up their party cards when war starts
With the Tories in seemingly terminal decline there will be a vacuum in British politics. There will be opportunities for the far Blair! right but this is not yet their time. They will grow significantly if the left fails now to act to fill the space vacated by Labour.
The anti-war movement is now, after Florence and Cairo, international to the core. February 15 will see simultaneous demonstrations throughout Europe, the Middle East, Asia and the Americas.
Many millions will march. It is no exaggeration to say that this movement is developing into a tidal wave that will engulf all existing political organisations
Those organisations on the left that can respond enthusiastically and creatively to this new mass movement stand to make huge gains. Tough times ahead for Tony