month ago, Israel's prime minister A Ariel Sharon looked certain to
win the country's forthcoming general election. Now, amid corruption charges, a worsening security situation and apparent dithering, he is in trouble, and his poll ratings have plummeted. However, this seems unlikely to enable the Labour Party to return to power.
Financial corruption is not uncommon in Israeli politics. Yitzhak Rabin's first term as prime minister ended ignominiously when he was forced to resign in 1977 after admitting holding an illegal foreign currency bank account. Several former cabinet ministers and other leading politicians have served prison terms for corruption.
With the exception of Rabin, all of these cases related to illegal party funding, not personal gain. The difference in the latest example is that it occurs in the midst of an election campaign in which there is little else to distinguish between the parties.
Sharon's loss of support (latest polls suggest his Likud Party will win 27 of the 120 seats, rather than the 40 predicted a week ago has largely benefited religious and • • ... .. hard-right parties, and the anti-clerical right wing Shinui party. Labour, under its new leader Amram Mitzna, does not appear to be increasing its support.
Despite his carefully cultivated image as a liberal peace maker, Mitzna is, like most Israeli political leaders, a product of the army high command. Although he is famed for taking leave of absence during the 1982 invasion of Lebanon, this was apparently a protest at Sharon's refusal to accept any responsibility for the conduct of the war, rather than an a moral or political objection to this act of aggression.
Later, as West Bank military commander during the first Intifada, Mitzna loyally implemented defence minister Rabin's order to use "force, power and blows" to break the bones of protesters.
Visiting Tony Blair in Downing Street last week, Mitzna supported Sharon's denial of exit permits for Palestinian leaders invited to negotiations in Britain, and expressed his strong support for a fence to separate jews and Arabs in Palestine. Significantly, Israeli anti-occupation activists who originally welcomed Mitzna's victory in the Labour Party as a sign of a new direction, have already changed their minds.
In the words of one of them, Tel-Aviv linguist Professor Tanya Reinhart, "A vote for Mitzna is a vote for Sharon".
One reason for this is the comprehensive defeat of Labour "doves" in the internal elections for places on the party's parliamentary list. Prominent victims include Oslo peace deal architect Yossi Beilin, and Peace Now leader Tzalli Reshef.
Mitzna, already an unconvincing dove, will be prisoner of a far more hawkish party, with former ministers Shimon Peres and Binyamin Ben-Eliezer keen to form a coalition with Sharon and resume their cabinet seats.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has overturned a decision of the elections commission banning Palestinian parties and activists from running in the elections. The partydominated elections commission had ruled that the National Democratic Alliance, and its leader Azmi Bishara, and Palestinian activist Ahmed Tibi, appointed to the number three position on the Communist Partyled Hadash list, were excluded from standing in the elections since they did not recog nise Israel as "the state of the Jewish people"
At the same time. the commission ruled The Israeli violence continues to kill an average of four Palestinians every day that Baruch Marzel, the leader of the banned Kach party founded by racist Rabbi Meir Kahane, was allowed to run on the Herut party list, even though his own party was disqualified.
The Supreme Court has not yet published the grounds for its finding, so it is not known whether the reason was due to technical mistakes in the original ruling, or a principled objection to the disqualification process. Had the ban stood, it would probably have led to a boycott of the elections by Palestinian citizens of Israel - over 15 per cent of the electorate. Observers feared that this would lead to a permanent ultraright majority in the Knesset, since Palestinian members would be likely to vote against a Likud government, but abstain on a Labour administration.
Nevertheless, the election is unlikely to lead to a significant change in Israel's poli cies. If elected, Mitzna is committed to renewing the unacceptable "offer" (actually an ultimatum) made by Ehud Barak in 200l.
If this is rejected, he would unilaterally withdraw the Israeli army from large areas of the occupied territories, while maintaining control over all border crossings. In effect, he would turn huge areas into "self. governing" concentration camps, whose inhabitants were hermetically excluded from resources and livelihood.
This might satisfy the conscience of some Israeli "liberals"; it would do nothing to resolve the Palestine conflict.