The long drawnout crisis over control of Bolivia's natural resources is reaching a decisive stage, says Paul Clarke. While the government and national assembly are totally discredited in the eyes of the workers, peasants and indigenous people, the popular bloc lacks the leadership and political clarity that could quickly resolve the crisis in their favour. A potentially pre-revolutionary situation is being squandered, and this could lead to demoralising demobilisation or even attempts at a military coup.
he new movement started with popular protests against the Hydrocarbons Law that wond hand control Bolivia's natural gas to multinational corporations.
The hydrocarbons law proposed by president Carlos Mesa, increases the taxes on multinational companies; however it does not enact the decision of a referendum last year -that the Bolivian state should receive 50% royalties on gas and oil extraction.
The main leader of the popular opposition supported the 50% royalties compromise, Evo Morales of the MAS (Movement Towards Socialism).
Since May 16, the capital La Paz and other major cities have been paralysed by protests against the Hydrocarbons Law. This crisis was dramatically escalated on May 25 with, the arrival in the capital of thousands of peasants from the Alto Plano (High Plateau), mobilised by the MAS and the Federation of United Neighbours of El Alto (FEJUVE-El Alto).
Other major organisations involved in the mobilisations include the COB (the main trade union federation), the Departmental Federation of Peasant Workers of La Paz, the Federation of Peasant Women "Bartolina Sisa," the National Council of Ayllus and Marcas, representatives of the indigenous people of the departments of Beni and Santa Cruz, the Federation of Petroleum Workers of Bolivia and the Landless Movement oi Bolivia.
Major roads have been blockaded by the protestors, businesses have closed down and there have been major stand-offs between the riot 'police and protestors, including an attempt to storm the main piaza outside the national parliament.
Many of the protestors call for the nationalisation of the gas and oil, going way beyond the position of Evo Morales. But in fact the protestors, although paralysing the country's economy, face a political stalemate. Either they push forward towards a major victory or crushing defeat faces them.
Six weeks ago Carlos Mesa dramatically went on television saying "the multinational corporations are running the country". Theretore, he argued, hydrocarbon law could be passed which they disapproved of.
In effect he was saying "back my hydrocarbons law, or I will resign and you will get someone more reactionary". If Mesa resigned Hormando Vaca Diez, president of the Senate, would automatically become the new president.
Vaca Diez is a strong ally of the MIR (Movement of the Revolutionary Left), a party which is neither left nor revolutionary, but in fact now a right-wing neoliberal party.
In the face of growing protests Carlos Mesa refused to sign law which watered down the 50% royalties decided by the national referendum. But the national assembly passed the law, which was instead signed by Vaca Diez.
The question of power is beginning to be posed in Bolivia. According to Forrest Hylton "The motive force of the current wave of protest comes from the rank-and-file and mid-level cadre in El Alto and the department of La Paz, but only Morales and MAS have the potential to unite the highly fragmented social movements across the abovementioned divides.
"However, like all popular caudillos, Morales has a vested interest in maintaining a dynamic of limited mobilisation. Currently the only effective break on popular insurrection, Morales poses as the defender of democracy in hopes of winning over the urban middle class....
"Though the U.S. Embassy, the weak and divided Bolivian elite, and the London Economist see Morales as a wolf in sheep's clothing-a strategic radical disguised as a
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