Any country would be shaken by an bombing in Madrid on March 11. However, the election results which followed 3 days later were not just a reaction to the attack, but also to the Aznar government's spin on the bombing and its support for the war on Iraq.
Initially, it seemed as if the bombing would increase the governing Partido Popular's (PP) majority. Their confident claim that it was carried out by the Basque terrorist group ETA - asking representatives around the country to take every opportunity to blame ETA' within a few hours of the events -seemed a gift for the right wing party, since their virulent hatred of Basque nationalism has been one of the defining features of their government since 1996. It has deep roots in their Francoist, Spanish Nationalist past.
However, as it became clear that there was no evidence behind their claim, revulsion against government propaganda and lies grew, and greater momentum gathered behind the gradual swing towards the left that has characterised the last year.
The results were not a sudden turnaround in public opinion. There is no doubt that the major factor was the 90 per cent opposition to the Iraq war, which saw millions mobilise on the streets, ignored by Aznar's government. The bombing and the spin probably added a few, important percentage points to the anti-government vote, but participation in the Bush/Blair attack on Iraq was the main cause of the fall of the PP. The Socialists
So who did vote for the Socialists? Their victory was not a straightforward shift of votes from PP to PSOE, but also from the minor parties and people who did not vote in the last election. It was the latter that appears to have provided two thirds of the extra 3 million votes the Socialists picked up compared to their 2000 score. At 77 per cent, the turnout was very high.
It is still difficult to predict the likely result of the Socialist Party victory. Observers should not be fooled by the PSOE leader, Jose Luis Zapatero, declaring that Spanish troops will pull out of Iraq. They may well do, but this is not a radical socialist party by any means.
The Socialists opposed the war, but provided little leadership to the massive anti-war movement, which was probably the largest in Europe. Nonetheless, there was certainly a growing desire to throw out the PP over the last year, and that led to a rallying of votes behind the PSOE as the only "realistic alternative". Unfortunately the main party of the hard left, Izquierda Unida (United Left), exacerbated this situation by identifying itself with the Socialists, hoping to gain influence in government.
Now one important question is "Will the PSOE form some sort of coalition, or try to govern without a majority?" Though they are the largest party, they are a dozen seats short of 50 percent in a parliament of 350. So there are four options -coalition with either the Basque or Catalan nationalists (PNV or CU), both centrist parties, the United Left, or a minority government.
The Catalan Nationalists seem the most likely option, with the biggest parliamentary presence of the smaller forming coalitions with both Socialists and PP in the past. The Socialists have been floundering for some years, trying to form a new identity and new leadership since Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez sank in a wave of corruption scan- • dals and the illegal GAL assassination campaign against ETA in 1996.
It remains to be seen exactly what the political profile of the new government will be, since Zapatero was a minor figure when the PSOE were last in power; however, his leadership has not provided much grounds for suggesting a turn to the left, and the party has no significant radical tendencies within it. The United Left
So, what does all this mean for the left? The United Left's failure to provide an alternative perspective or distinctive profile from the PSOE was undoubtedly an important fac tor in the decline of their vote. The practical result was that some of their voters transferred to the Socialists.
They also lost seats because Spain's voting system rewards parties that have regionally concentrated votes, which IU does not. So although Izquierda Unida is the 3rd largest party in the country in terms of votes (1.25m), they are now the 6th in terms of seats
Also, like every other minor party, with the exception of the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), they lost votes and seats at this elec tion. The latter seems to have been a one-off backlash against the right-wing witch-hunt against the ERC leader, who was forced to resign after holding talks with ETA parties and a history of (Top and middle) Madrid protestors, and (above) Zapatero
One area that the United Left should now seek to address is the massive mobilisation of the popular vote, including many younger voters. A distinctive left profile, unapologetiZapatero was minor figure wi the PSOE were last in power; however, his leadership has provided much grounds for suggesting a tu to the left ... cally opposing Bush's politics and th PP, as well as the lukewarm polic Socialists, could reap gains for th Left at future elections. There is a g of young people who mobilised as war and probably formed a significa of the Socialist vote who could be w left.
However, to do that IU needs
nise that they do influence by hangir coat-tails of the PS strategy that has pr astrous time and tir Over the last 25 y periods when the Left and its prec have done best ha when they had a d political agenda mobilised with ur social movements the low points ha characterised by attempts to curr with the Socialists a to their right.
So it is likely that the best hopes fo lie on the streets, with the anti-war globalisation movements, in the p come
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10 soclalist re Green Party politics ance April 2004