Whether Lula (above) drifts into a type of populist politician so common in Latin America as a way of balancing competing pressures is impossible to predict .... abuses are in the public arena. However, the costs of properly carrying through these policies and the wider social welfare policies will be immense and probably not compatible with the economic policy.
The delays are currently being tolerated with expectations for the future, how long this mood lasts will be an important factor in the future of Brazilian politics. Agrarian reform Fourth, agrarian reform. This is the area where conflict has been most intense. The landless movement has continuously increased the pressure on the government as its failure to make progress has become more and more blatant.
Simultaneously the landowners and the oligarchic parties have upped the pressure to limit reform. 2003 saw the largest ever number of landless activists assassinated, big landowners now openly arm and use their goons.
The government has taken action against this but the individual states control the police and their governors are mostly from oligarchic parties.
Overlapping with this is the issue of indigenous land rights which also appears to be taking a bloody turn. The police are currently surrounding occupied farms (which state courts have ordered them to clear of Indians) to prevent farmers clearing the land by force of arms.
The indigenous and the landless are expecting the PT's programme on land to be implemented, the landowners are expecting the government to protect 'their land, and their influence at State level gives them great leverage at the centre.
It could be argued that the fight that is now developing within Brazilian society is not the fight for the soul of the Lula government but a fight over the meaning of Lula's victory in 2002. Was it the victory of the PT's programme or of Lula's programme?
Was it a victory for anti-neo-liberal change or for a change in neo-liberalism? Indians, the landless, students, anti-FTAA activists, the homeless, public servants have all taken action in 2003.
Many are already planning how to carry on in 2004, if often in the framework of supporting Lula against domestic and international pressure.
The fact that controversial measures such as labour law reform, and the granting of autonomy to the central bank, have been put back until 2005 might indicate that Lula now thinks he needs to do more for his base in local election year.
The reality is that there is no socialist government in Brazil. At best this government could be called social democratic. It does have a strong commitment to eradicate poverty on paper but is hamstrung by its tactical approach to today's global political situation.
The links with Castro and Chavez are in tune with Brazil's geo-political interests and are a continuation of the previous government's policy, no matter how strong the ideological content. The G3 and G22 are good initiatives at a diplomatic level but, considering the Indian BJP and the Turkish government, hardly socially radical.
Whether Lula drifts into a type of populist politician so common in Latin America as a way of balancing competing pressures is impossible to predict, but the government parliamentary bloc, formally or informally now includes almost every party. Liam Mac Uaid
Agony Blair has many unpleasant thends and one of the most sorand
is Silvio Berlusconi. In the semi lawless world of Italian capitalism you don't rise from being a singer on cruise ships to a dollar billionaire, prime minister and owner of several national TV stations without a little bit of shady dealing.
In common with an enthusiasm for war, Berlusconi shares with Blair a strong desire to make workers stay in their jobs for years after their current retirement age.
His Forza Italia government is keen to privatise pension provision too. At the moment Italian workers can retire after 35 years of work. This allows many people to retire at 57. When he tried this in 1994 it brought down his government. Berlusconi wants to oblige people to retire at 65 or after 40 years of work.
A lot of working people are furious about this. We know this because last year 10 million people in more than 100 Italian towns took part in demonstrations organised by the three union federations against the proposal.
Rifondazione Comunista has eleven members of parliament. It arose from the more class struggle orientated wing of the old Communist Party and took a prominent part in these demonstrations.
Its leadership sees this battle against the Berlusconi government as a way of removing Forza Italia from power. But it wants to achieve this by allying itself with the man and the politics who made Berlusconi's electoral victory possible.
Romano Prodi led the Olive Tree "centre left coalition and was prime minister from 1996 until 1998. Quite a long time by Italian standards. His government was a neo-liberal administration and quickly lost the support of many Italian workers - so allowing Berlusconi to come to power:
Before making this electoral coalition with the more right wing and larger section of the former Communist Party, Prodi had been a Christian Democrat. This was a very corrupt, Catholic, anti-working class version of the Conservative Party.
He was investigated for corruption but not enough evidence was found. Italian investigators of corruption have yet to establish a reputation for diligence.
The strategy which is being proposed by the Rifondazione Comunista leadership amounts to trying something that failed six Berlusconi" leads to a dead end for working class politics. or seven years ago. Some of their potential allies have appealed to Berlusconi to stand firm with his proposed pension reforms and others have supported the sending of Italian troops to Iraq.
The leadership wants to use the big struggles as a chance to unite in government with the ruling class B team.
Italian supporters of the Fourth International are active members of Rifondazione Comunista.
They have a different way of looking at how you use the class struggle to change society. In a document they submitted for discussion at a national meeting of the party they begin by pointing to the international situation. They note the success of antiglobalisation activists at Cancun, the fact that in Bolivia the masses overthrew the government.
But most importantly they remark on how the anti war movement has opened up discussions on how the Italian workers' movement can be "refounded" in a way that doesn't involve backroom deals with careerists and bureaucrats.
They explain that this is something that has to be done from the bottom up and give the example of the meetings between antiglobalisation activists and trade unionists from Fiat plants.
This is where they see a new workers' movement developing its language and its He's awful, alright. But rather like "anyone but Bush" in the USA, "anyone but political culture. Italy is much more advanced than Britain in this regard. The demonstrations in Genova had hundreds of thousands of Italian trade unionists and members of left political parties. This is not yet something we have seen in Britain.
The parties of the "centre-left" win the votes of millions of Italian workers and the Italian revolutionary Marxists suggest a number of ways in which Rifondazione Comunista can seek to lead these workers
They point to the struggle to defend pen sions, the issue of trade union democracy, measures to make sure wages keep pace with inflation and the withdrawal by Italy from lraq
They also demand the renationalisation of privatised public services and companies and re-directing money from the armed forces to more constructive purposes.
At stake here is what a fighting socialist organisation does when it gets a few members of parliament
Does it then start to play the old games of parliamentary alliances and manoeuvres or does it use big struggles against capital. ism to build a new left and a new workers movement?
The Italian supporters of the Fourth International are clear. They want to help lead the creation of an Italian workers movement which is based on these strug gles - and build a socialist society.
page 20 of the scan
In depth: the benefits system 20 soclallst resistance February 2004
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