The toll of this summer's heat wave as well as tens of thousands of deaths there were crop failures, particularly in France and Ukraine. Yields of grain are up to 20 per cent down, prices of basic foodstuffs will rise and there will be a small amount of very good (expensive) wine.
The heat wave cannot be attributed directly to the greenhouse effect. But, climate change will mean more heat waves with worldwide pressure on agriculture and water supplies. Water pollution will increase as more chemicals are used to maintain yields, while wetland habitats will suffer, as the Danube delta did this summer.
There was fall out in other parts of the
and ecosystem. n Netherlands, Germany and France, nuclear power plants were shut down as some rivers were too low to supply cooling water, while in others excessive discharge temperatures harmed river life. Wholesale electricity prices doubled. Fortunately, alpine glaciers were melting so fast that hydroelectricity could make up for some of this loss, but this "benefit" is only temporary.
There has been almost no effort to prevent or minimise climate change since Svante Arrhenius predicted the effects of fossil fuel burning in 1896. Measurements .... were first taken in the 1950s. The industrialised countries will not meet the modest 5.2 per cent cut in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the Kyoto protocol: Green Party advisor Professor John Whitelegg argues that UK cuts of 90 per cent are needed.
Now, new scientific findings have emerged, showing that the global average warming of 0.6°C since 1880 is lower than it could have been, because sulphur dioxide emissions caused by coal burning had a countervailing effect. Emissions of this acidrain-causing gas are falling and there are now projections that by 2100 temperatures could be 8.3°C up. To get a measure of this, average temperatures are currently about 5.0°C above those of the last ice age.
One of the main arguments used the by climate char
largely refuted in July. "Mediaeval Warm Period" and "Little Ice Age" of ~ 1650-1800 - neither of which could be explained by changes in carbon dioxide concentrations - had been interpreted as signals of global changes. In fact, they were based on Eurocentric data: global temperatures in both periods were normal. This strengthens the view that the current abnormal warming is humanmade.
All kinds of pundits are now proposing ways of dealing with the climate crisis.
Jeremy Leggett, former Greenpeace campaigner and founder of the UK solar panel company Solar Century, argues that solar power can solve the problem. Jeremy Rifkin, a US environmentalist, proposes conversion to the "hydrogen economy". Advocates of this (e.g. Ford, Toyota, GM) are mainly interested in preserving the private motor car, one of the 20th century's urban destruction, irrespective of the fuel it uses. instead of hedging their bets as they did in sceptics was The
Wing. gy and carbon taxes.
resistant crops. under capitalism. most important drivers of inequality and
gy, for example:
"Trade Unionists for Safe Nuclear access Energy" (using the website of British Energy, the privatised nuclear generator) call for the UK government to commit now to building new nuclear power stations,
animals. February's Energy White Paper. A UK government report is about to call for more work on pumping CO2 under the seabed, something the US government is also push- two person ones.
The US is almost certain to recommence building nuclear power stations after a 24year hiatus and there are academics calling for a quadrupling of nuclear power world- office blocks. wide. Green Parties call for renegotiation of the Kyoto protocol, more renewable enerSome climate researchers argue that we have to adapt to climate change, rather than tinues, energy demand by 2050 will be 2 ½ prevent it getting worse. This is also the approach of agribusiness, which wants to use GM to develop drought, heat and saltiry Marxists need to Presence archiat one. The
issue, not a technical one. The starting point has to be the connection between social relations and energy use
Capitalism is inherently wasteful of ener• Reliance on the private motor car for
• Globalised and over-industrialised agriculture, with huge energy inputs into transport and fertilisers. Excessive meat production: 2/3 of the world's grain is fed to
• Anti-collective housing and social "norms". Energy use per person is 17% more in single person households than in
• Replication of products as a result of competition and goods that cannot be repaired. This involves not just the energy in the products, but multiple factories and stake.
Some argue that wastefulness won't matter if conversion to renewable energy (RE) is achieved. Now, 85 per cent of energy is derived from fossil fuels. If capitalism contimes what it is now and 90 per cent of that will have to be RE. This is impossible with- issue out RE itself having a huge, negative environmental impact.
Wasted energy equates with labour time Eliminating wasteful practices will mean a shorter working week.
Revolutionary Marxists also have to argue for agrarian reform, not just in the semicolonial countries. This is the only rational response to the reality of climate change. Reform will make possible techniques that allow flexibility to suit changing weather conditions, because migration as a response is no longer possible. Also necessary are measures to protect fish stocks, those who subsist on them having first priority.
The events and findings of the past few months should dispel any idea that capitalism can prevent climate change. It has already failed, and there is no reason to assume that future measures will be more effective. A system that can blithely sit by and allow 40 million people - mainly Africans - to die of AIDS, is not going to prevent another potentially equally bad catastrophe, especially when profit is at
With the growth of the anti-capitalist movement, the urgency of climate change has become more apparent to many activists. The task now is to use the forums available to activists, such as the Socialist Alliance and the European Social Forum, to discuss and promote campaigns on this vital