When Russian special forces stormed the Moscow theatre where Chechen fighters held around 800 hostages, the result was predictable: a bloody and cruel disaster. Over 100 hostages and 50 of their captors died. Hundreds more suffered grave injuries. No-one knows how many were victims of the hostage takers: it seems that almost all of them died from the poisonous gas used by the special forces.
As soon as the seizure began the Kremlin began talking about the impossibility of negotiations, of links to Al Qaida, and so on. Similar allegations were made in 1999, after 300 people died in a series of Moscow apartment bombings.
Many Russians now believe this to have been the work of the secret police, the FSB. However Putin used public outrage at the time to win his election campaign, promising a short, sharp war to deal with the Chechen issue once and for all. In this he had the tacit acquiescence of Western leaders, who in return needed Moscow's support for their own so-called wars on terror.
But Putin's get tough' methods have manifestly failed. On the contrary they have led to an escalation of the war, which has dragged on for three years. Badly-trained and illequipped Federal troops have met with strong resistance, suffering heavy casualties of up to 50 per week. Towns and villages remain devastated and thousands of refugees continue to flee.
The terrible and continuing plight of most Chechens, and the prospect of no end to this notoriously brutal war are behind the desperate measures of the hostage -takers. But the carnage of innocent people resulting from the predictable Russian response can neither be justified nor help solve the long-term issues of the conflict.
Although some, induding Political Islamists have their own agenda and reasons for involvement in Chechnya, historically the struggle there has been and remains for most one of national self-determination. Nationalist leaders made a bid for this in 1992 after the break-up of the Soviet Union.
Many former Soviet Republics then gained independence, but, as part of the Russian Federation Chechnya's future was more complex. Although it dedared independence, this was never recognised by Moscow or anyone else.
As a consequence it was unable to get aid and investment to develop and emerge as a viable state. Unemployment, poverty and corruption have been the result, all of which are used by Russia to justify its intervention.
Any consideration of Chechnya's future has to address. these issues. Instead Putin has refused president Maskhadov's offers to negotiate a political settlement based on troop withdrawal and a recognition of de facto independCRe.
The Moscow hostage-takers' similar demands were also rejected, even an end to the arbitrary detention, beatings and disappearances of anyone accused of terrorism. At the same time police tried to ban protestors calling for an end to the war.
The result was the carnage and mayhem of the, theatre storming somes adi beats: