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By LUCAS KOERNER - VENEZUELANALYSIS.COM , December 9th 2015
In light of this fact, will the opposition tread lightly, gradually chipping away at the country’s social democratic institutions with the aim of molding a new neoliberal consensus? Or, on the contrary, will they give in to the temptation of absolute legislative power and attempt to topple the Chavista social and political order in one go? It is worth noting that the Venezuelan opposition has never been adept at strategic thinking. Thoroughly arrogant and undemocratic, it has incessantly tried to overthrow the popularly elected Bolivarian government by force from the 2002 coup to the violent street mobilizations of 2013 and 2014. It is unlikely that the opposition will succeed in taming its un-strategic, anti-democratic lust for Chavismo’s annihilation when its object appears so close within reach. The Coming Showdown Following the swearing in of the new National Assembly in January, the opposition will likely begin its assault on multiple fronts: repealing revolutionary legislation and international treaties, initiating the process of collecting signatures from 20% of the electorate for a recall referendum against President Maduro, and replacing the magistrates of the Supreme Court in preparation for possible impeachment proceedings against the chief executive. The Venezuelan right will, however, face a number of obstacles in this reactionary endeavor, which may play out in Chavismo’s favor. First, far from a homogenous bloc, the opposition coalition is internally divided between a ultra-right wing led by Leopoldo Lopez, Antonio Ledezma and Maria Corina Machado and a more moderate wing headed by Henrique Capriles and Democratic Action leader Henry Allup, who is poised to be elected president of the body. United only in their commitment to unseating the Bolivarian government, these loose groupings harbor important strategic differences, with the former favoring regime change via extra-constitutional violence while the latter opting for the ballot box. Given the coalition’s extensive new legislative powers, these divisions are only likely to deepen. The diverse parties of the MUD will now have to reach agreements in various areas from defining a legislative agenda to determining their strategy for ousting Maduro. Will they seek a recall referendum, or focus on stacking the Supreme Court and impeaching Maduro, or both? Will they prioritize convening a constituent assembly or work within the country’s current progressive constitution? A particular bone of contention will be the extent of rupture with the existing Bolivarian institutional order. The hard right wants to rewrite the Constitution and return the country to its oligarchic heyday, while more moderate elements want to become power-brokers within the current order. This brings us to a second weakness, namely that the opposition must now deliver on its promise to pass measures aimed at resolving the current economic crisis. No longer can they simply opt for the strategy of promoting economic destabilization while blaming the consequences entirely on President Maduro. Here the debate will revolve around how extreme a neoliberal agenda to implement, which could likely trigger a conflict between those who would seek loans from the IMF and World Bank, eliminate price and currency controls, and privatize vital sectors of the economy– and those sectors committed to instituting narrower neoliberal reforms while retaining important social welfare previsions in order to stave off the threat of popular revolt. Capriles appears to allude to this danger in a recent pre-election interview where he remarks, “no one wants a social explosion in the country.” These tensions will likely heat up in the context of the debate over a recall referendum, with some sectors urging initial restraint from the harshest neoliberal measures in order to win the recall vote, while others already screaming for a maximal neoliberal agenda with little concern for the ensuing socio-political unrest. This is of course the third and most important countervailing factor, namely the response from Chavismo, particularly its most politicized bases, who are unlikely to take this defeat and imminent rightwing onslaught lying down. Speaking to high-level Bolivarian officials Monday night, President Maduro described the defeat as a “triumph of the counter-revolution” and called for a special meeting of all 908 PSUV national delegates to evaluate the landslide defeat and prepare next steps. He also announced plans to meet with social movements represented in the presidential councils of popular power on Saturday. Among grassroots chavistas, plans are underway to begin organizing the defense of key revolutionary laws targeted for repeal by the incoming rightwing deputies come January. “All we have left is the streets,” a community activist and public sector worker at the National Institute of Socialist Capacitation and Education told Venezuelanalysis.com. Chavistas intimately understand that the gains of the revolution have been won and lost not in the halls of parliament nor in bureaucratic offices, but in the streets, the barrios, the colectivos, the communal councils, where the masses make history. The incredible aspect of Sunday, as Ociel Alí Lopez points out , was not merely Chavismo’s historic defeat but moreover the fact that despite the incompetent inaction of the government in the face of a deep economic crisis combined with the corruption and ideological degeneration of the party leadership, some 6 million people still voted for the PSUV. These votes must not be taken for granted, for they reflect an immense political clarity regarding the need to continue with the revolutionary process, defending its gains and radicalizing towards new advances. This defeat represents an urgent warning call to Chavismo from its official leadership to its most disciplined militants: failure to critically reflect and rectify the revolutionary course will lead to the destruction of the Bolivarian Project. Time is short as President Maduro will almost certainly face a recall referendum in 2016, but all is not lost provided that the vital work of reconnecting with the Venezuelan masses begins immediately. Speaking following the defeat late Sunday night, Maduro himself underscored the paramount importance of this task. “A new stage must come in the Bolivarian Revolution with a new quality in our way of doing politics, in the grassroots leadership, in the intermediate leadership, in the high-level public posts we occupy, in political party leaders, a new quality in our relation with the pueblo, a new quality of leadership and action,” he said.
Now is the moment for post-Chávez Chavismo to reinvent itself by forging a new revolutionary quality which for Maduro, as for Chávez and Che before him, means not just “respect for the people”, but an imperative to rule by obeying .