Venezuela without Chavez: A Possible Scenario

2013-01-07 · first published in Venezuelanalysis · 193 words

This was not a Socialist Resistance publication. marxsite was Phil Hearse’s own long-form site, run alongside the paper he helped edit. It is kept here with his agreement, recovered from the Internet Archive after the domain lapsed and was taken over by someone else; nothing here links to the address it now points at.

As credited on the page: “link to venezuelanalysis.com”

Only part of this piece survives. The capture it was recovered from is truncated, so the text below stops before the article did. The original is still readable at Venezuelanalysis: read it in full. The full piece runs to about 1,103 words against the 193 that survive here.

---

By ROBERTO LOPEZ – MAREA SOCIALISTA , January 7th 2013 ( Venezuelanalysis via Havana Times.org ) This article is written by a member of the leftist Marea Socialista (Socialist Tide) current of Venezuela’s ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). It is the first of several voices from within the Bolivarian movement to be featured by Venezuelanalysis.com this week, each offering an interpretation of the current situation in relation to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s health and swearing-in, as well as the possible future political scenarios that Venezuela faces. 1) Chavez’s leaving power seems to be a certainty in the short term (from a few months to a year), either through death or because his health will prevent him from returning to active office. If he returns and is sworn in on January 10 or at a later date, his precarious health condition will keep him almost permanently in Cuba and the real running of the country will fall on one or more other individuals. 2) This implies the beginning of a period of profound change in the political leadership of the Bolivarian Revolution. This period could last several months or even several years.