Towards the end of summer 2015, Russia greatly expanded its military involvement on the side of the Assad regime, including providing serious training and logistical support to the Syrian army. On September 17, the regimes army started using new types of air and ground weapons supplied by Russia, while satellite photos taken in mid-September showed Russian forces developing two additional military facilities close to Lattakiyya.2 Russia's military involvement reached another level on September 30, when Russian jets conducted their first raids in Syria. In addition, hundreds of Iranian troops arrived in Syria on September 21 and will soon join the Assad regime forces and their Lebanese Hezbollah allies in a major ground offensive backed by Russian air strikes aimed at recapturing territories lost by the Assad regime to various opposition forces. Most probably, the coming land operations will be focused in the Idlib and Hama countryside.3 All these actors have been key to the survival of the Assad regime. Russia has long supplied Assad armed forces with the vast majority of their weaponry and has continued to ship substantial volumes of small arms, ammunition, spare parts and refurbished material to pro-regime forces. In January 2014, Russia stepped up supplies of military gear to the Syrian regime, including armoured vehicles, drones and guided bombs.^ The campaign of the "war against terrorism", or saving and consolidating the Assad regime Putin is using the question of Islamic State and the "war against terrorism" as a way to support the Assad regime politically and militarily and crush all forms of opposition to it. He wants the various international imperialist actors in the West to consider Assad as the ruler that can help them in their fight against "terrorism." This can be seen by who the Russian raids target. On September 30, 2015, Russian jets conducted the first raids in Syria against the village of Zafarana, north of Homs and near the town of Lataminah northwest of Hama. Neither are Islamic State (IS) strongholds. In nearby Hama, one group targeted in the strikes, Tajammu al-Izzah, is considered to be an important member of the Free Syrian army (FSA). It was one of the few to have received anti-tank rockets and had regularly used them against regime tanks and armoured vehicles across central Syria. On the same day Russia also bombed Talbiseh, al-Mukarama, Reef Homs al-shamali. All of these areas are mainly under FSA control, with also some presence of Jabhat Al Nusra and Ahrar Sham. The Syrian Civil Defense Forces, a volunteer emergency responder organization, reported more than 35 civilian casualties from the Russian airstrikes on Homs and Hama. On the following days, Russian jets targets included a command post and underground weapons bunker near Raqqa, as well as a weapons store in Maarat al-Numaan. Maarat al-Numaan, in Idlib, is not an Islamic State base. Most fighters in the area are from Jaysh al-Fatah coalition led by Jabhat Al The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights recorded at least 39 civilians killed since the start of the Russian air strikes on September 30, together with 14 fighters, mostly IS jihadists but also members of Jabhat Al Nusra, Ahrar Sham and FSA brigades. Britain's defence minister declared that only one in 20 Russian air strikes in Syria were aimed at IS. The strikes have actually hit at least four factions operating under the umbrella of the FSA. Russian officials have declared that the airstrikes will last 3-4 The clear objectives of these airstrikes are to consolidate the political and military power of the Assad regime. On September 28 before the strikes began, Putin said: "There is no other way to settle the Syrian conflict other than by strengthening the existing legitimate government agencies, support them in their fight against terrorism". In other words, he wants to crush all forms of opposition, whether democratic or reactionary, to the Assad regime under the rubric of the so called "war on terror". All authoritarian regimes have used this same kind of propaganda to repress popular movements and/ or opposition groups: Assad against the popular movement since day 1 of the uprising; Sissi in Egypt to repress particularly the Muslim Brotherhood but also progressive left and democratic movements such as the Revolutionary Socialists and the Movement of 6 April; Erdogan In Turkey against the PKK and various leftist movements; Bahrain and Saudi Arabia against the protesters and popular movements challenging their power, International imperialist powers have been no different: the Russian state repressed any resistance to its occupation of Chechnya and the USA to its various military interventions across the world. Both were and are claiming to fight against terrorism. The timing of Russia's actions is because of the increasing political and military weakness of the Assad regime but this combines with the absence of any clear policy from Western powers to assist the revolutionaries Political and military weakness of the The Syrian army has been weakened considerably. Estimates suggest its numbers fell from 300,000 to as little as 80,000 and it has suffered important defeats in the past few months, notably the fall of the northern towns of Idlib and nearby Jisr al-Shughour in May 2015 taken by the coalition of the Jaysh Desertions and lack of will by Syrian youth to die for a corrupt and authoritarian regime mainly explain the impossibility of the army to recruit. Many young men have been fleeing to Europe after receiving their call-up papers or being ordered to report for reserve duty. Propaganda for the army in state media, recruiting posters all over Damascus and recent amnesty for deserters and draft dodgers did not change anything Last July Assad actually acknowledged that the army has a shortage of manpower and had to abandon some areas in order to better defend what is called "la Syrie utile" - Damascus through to Homs and the coastal area around Lattakıyya. The weakness of the regime's army has led to the creation of a 125,000-strong, locally-based National Defence Force, which has been trained and paid by the Islamic Republic of Iran, who also favour the use of Shia militia fighters from Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan as well as Hezbollah. This is rather embarrassing for supporters of the Assad regime - not forgetting that the vast majority of destructions of state institutions, including schools, hospitals, etc. are the result of shelling by the regime's forces.
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On a political level, increasing frustration has been expressed in the so-called "loyalist" region against the regime, especially in the past few weeks and At the end of August and beginning of September 2015, demonstrations occurred in two Shi'a villages, Fuaa and Kafriyeh in Idlib, showing anger at the regimes failure to help them repel the attacks and bombings of Jabhat Al Nusra and Ahrar Sham. The protesters reportedly went to Homs and to Damascus where they tried to block the road to the airport for several hours on Monday 31 August. In August, more than 1000 people carried out a sit-in at the roundabout of al- Ziraa in the city of Lattakiyya® to protest the murder of Colonel Hassan al-Sheikh who was killed by Sulaiman al-Assad - a member of the Assad clan. Other demonstrations have occurred in Tartus by soldiers' families, denouncing the way the regime treats soldiers and demanding their return. These people aren't supporting the revolution, for now, but they are worth reaching out to because they are tired of the war, of the harsh socio economic situation, are sick of the corrupt Assad family acting as if Syria was their own property and stealing In the region of the city of Sweida, where the Druze community is a majority, various protests have happened against some of the regime's policies and the low level of services. People demonstrated demanding more basic services including water and electricity. The clerics supported these demands. Most recently, demonstrations broke out following the assassination of Sheikh Wahid Bal'ous in an explosion, which killed more than 20 people. Sheikh Wahid Bal'ous was a Druze Sheikh known for his opposition both to the regime and to the Islamic fundamentalist forces. He was a very popular figure and was leading the movement "Sheikhs of dignity" committed to protect the Druze in the province, that was also fighting the Islamic State (IS) and Jabhat Al-Nusra. He opposed the Syrian army recruiting men from Sweida and sending them to fight outside the province. Demonstrators protested in front of government buildings and smashed a statue of the former Syrian regime president Hafez al-Assad.? The absence of any clear policy from Western powers to assist the revolutionaries in Syria This second element is not new, Western powers have never wanted to support Syrian revolutionaries. Assad's allies have understood this and this is the main reason why their political, military and economic support to the dictatorship have been constant and even increased over time. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, chairman of the Committee for Foreign Policy and National Security in the Iranian parliament, declared in June 2015 during a visit in Damascus that Iran's support for the Syrian regime is "stable and constant" and stressed that there were no restrictions or limits to cooperation with Syria. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani argued at the UN that Assad's regime must not be weakened if Western states are serious about combating "terrorism". In an interview on CNN he argued that "everyone has accepted that President Assad must remain so that we can combat the terrorists". This is the sad truth as we can see. In his speech on September 28 at the UN General Assembly President Obama clearly stated his willingness to work with Russia and Iran to find a solution in Syria while emphasising the implausibility of maintaining "a pre-war status quo". U.S. State Department spokesman John Kirby stated that a Russian official informed the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad about the airstrikes and requested that American military aircraft avoid Syrian airspace during Russian operations. Senior Israeli officials also announced that Russia informed Israel about an hour before it conducted these airstrikes in Syria, making contact with Israeli National Security Adviser, Yossi Cohen and other senior officials in the Israeli defense
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establishment in order to avoid any confrontation between Israeli and Russian Israeli military sources confirmed the existence of consensus in Tel Aviv over the importance of the Assad regime continuing. Military affairs commentator Alon Ben-David quoted a source within the Israeli Joint Chiefs of Staff as saying: "Although no one in Israel can say this publicly and explicitly, the best option for Israel would be for the Assad regime to remain and for the internal fighting to continue for as long as possible." David Cameron declared he was not ruling out Assad's role in Syria's transition, but was clear that "Assad cannot be part of Syria's future in the long run". German Chancellor Angela Merkel went in the same direction saying it was necessary to speak to "many actors, among them Assad". Turkish officials have also declared that Assad could play a These positions were strengthened with the refugee crisis of these past few weeks. The vast majority of television programmes, articles and so-called experts talking about millions of refugees from Syria had the same discourse: the problem is IS. Some officials went as far as to say that European states should coordinate with the Assad regime and its allies Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran to resolve and end the problem of the IS and therefore in their minds of refugees. This of course forgets that the root of the problem in Syria is the Assad regime and that this latter is responsible for more of the 90% of refugees leaving the country. 10 On October 2, 2015, 70 rebel factions and the Syrian National Coalition (http://en. etilaf.org/press/joint-statement-on-the-latestdevelopments-and-implications-of-the-political-process-in-syria.html), in an emergency meeting after the beginning of Russian airstrikes, decided to end cooperation with UN envoy Staffan de Mistura's initiative for "work groups" to study a resolution of the conflict. These groups have completely refused any place for Assad in a transitional period and also rejected the last calls made by the regime officials for negotiation talks under the umbrella of the United Nations. They also condemned Russian airstrikes and accused Russia of not participating in the war against the Syrian people. Since the beginning of the Syrian uprising the USA and other Western powers have never wanted to help the Syrian revolutionaries or to overthrow the Assad regime. On the contrary they nave tried to reach an agreement between the Assad regime (or sections of it) and the part of the opposition linked to Western and Gulf regimes, which is unrepresentative of the popular movement and completely corrupt. According to the Geneva guidelines of June 30 2012, agreed to unanimously by the Permanent 5 members of the UN Security Council, it would be permissible for Assad to serve on the transitional governing body. Indeed, he could preside over it. All that was required was the consent of the opposition delegation. Similarly, delegates representing -the regime and the government-could withhold consent to persons nominated by the opposition. In addition to this, the absence or the lack of any kind of "large", organised and decisive military assistance of the USA and/or Western states to the Syrian revolutionaries is another proof of this lack of will for any radical change in Syria. The Wall Street Journal published an article in January 2015 "Some weapons shipments were so small that commanders had to ration ammunition. One of the U.S.'s favourite trusted commanders got the equivalent of 16 bullets a month per fighter. Rebel leaders were told they had to hand over old antitank missile launchers to get new ones-and couldn't get shells for captured tanks. When they appealed last summer for ammo to battle fighters linked to al Qaeda, the U.S. said no" Barack Obama's plan which was approved by Congress was for $500 million to arm and equip 5,000-10,000 Syrian rebels, but was never implemented. It was not aimed at overthrowing the Assad regime, as we can read in the text of the resolution: "The Secretary of Defence is authorized, in coordination with the Secretary of State, to provide assistance, including training, equipment, supplies, and sustainment, to appropriately vetted elements of the Syrian opposition and other appropriately vetted Syrian groups and individuals for the Defending the Syrian people from attacks by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and securing territory controlled by the Syrian Protecting the United States, its friends and allies, and the Syrian people from the threats posed by terrorists in Syria Promoting the conditions for a negotiated settlement to end the conflict in Syria." This programme has always been a failure. "The program is much smaller than we hoped," conceded the Pentagon's policy chief, Christine Wormuth, saying between 100 and 120 fighters were currently "getting terrific training" 1 A top general told Congress that the US had successfully trained just "four or five" opposition International The chief of staff of the US-trained Syrian rebel group Division 30 resigned and withdrew from the programme, on September 19, citing "the lack of sufficient numbers of trainees," and "the lack of seriousness in the implementation of the project to establish the 30th brigade". 12 The other problem faced by the United States to constitute armed groups in Syria loyal to their interests was and is thwarted by the reality on the ground because most opposition groups will cooperate with Washington only if they can maintain their independence and autonomous decisionmaking, and if the collaboration includes a clear plan for the overthrow of the Countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have on their side funded various groups, overwhelmingly Islamic fundamentalist groups that oppose the objectives of the revolution, for their own selfish political interests. Qatar for example have been a key supporter of Jabhat Al Nusra (Al Qaida branch in Syria), while Turkey have supported directly or in a passive way various Islamic fundamentalist groups, such as Jaysh al Fatah coalition and IS, by providing complete freedom of action on both sides of borders against democratic FSA forces and especially by opposing any autonomy of Kurdish regions under the umbrella of the PKK. Private networks of the Gulf monarchies have been funding with the approval of their ruling classes, various Islamic fundamentalist forces with the perspective of transforming the popular revolution to a sectarian war. Many protests and demonstrations have occurred in liberated areas of Syria to condemn the Russian airstrikes in Syria, which are not actually aimed at IS.14 The Local Coordination Committees of Syria condemned Russian airstrikes that are "to assure the survival of the Assad regime" and called "upon all revolutionary forces and factions to unite by any means and respond to the Russian aggression "15. The FSA Southern Front also condemned the strikes and characterised Russian and Iranian presence in the country as an occupation. These two last groups called for a democratic Syria as well. Russia and Iran's military expansion is a clear offensive to put an end to the popular uprising in Syria by consolidating the Assad regime militarily and politically and crushing all forms of opposition. This is done with the passive support of
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3 www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/01/us-mideast-crisis-syria-iranians-idUSKCNORV4DN20151001?mod=related 6 www.syriahr.com/en/2015/08/more-than-1000-protesters-in-the city-of-lattakia demand the execution of sulaiman8 www.middleeasteye.net/columns/assad-mass-murderer-rational-dictator-187936298#sthash.DTHu4OtC.dpuf
10 https://syriafreedomforever.wordpress.com/2015/09/09/the-islamic-stateor-the-main-reason-for-the-millions13 https://syriafreedomforever.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/syria-an-analysis-of-the-international-coalition-interven26 Western powers, who want to stabilize the region at any price and therefore Assad's resignation is not a pre-condition to a The different world imperialist powers and regional bourgeois regimes, in spite of their rivalry, have a common interest in the defeat of the popular revolutions of the region, and the most obvious example is that of Syria. The multiple peace initiatives on Syria, RUSSIA ACTS TO CONSOLIDATE ASSAD'S REGIME IN SYRIA PUTIN ATTACKS THE CIVILIANS AND THE FSA TAKING THEM BLINDLY TO BE ISIS WHILE IS/S IS 100 KM AWAY FROM US. THE SYRIAN REVOLUTION-FROM KAFRANBEL 3 OCT 15 supported by all the global and regional powers without exception, had the same objectives since the beginning of the revolutionary process in 2011: to reach an agreement between the Assad regime and an opportunistic faction - linked to the Western States, Turkey and the Gulf monarchies - of the opposition coming together in the Syrian Coalition. 1 www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11845635/Vladimir-Putin-confirms-Russian-military2 www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/22/us-mideast-crisis-russia-bases-idUSKCNORM21520150922 5 www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/03/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKCNORX0FX20151003 9 http://iswresearch.blogspot.it/2015/09/russias-first-reported-air-strikes-in.html 11 www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/sep/16/us-military-syrian-isis-fighters 12 http://uk.businessinsider.com/division-30-syrian-rebelchief-ofstaff-quits-2015-9 14 https://mkaradjis.wordpress.com/2015/10/03/russian-imperial-aggression-unites-the syrian-opposition/
15 www.facebook.com/LCCSy/posts/1238711152822685?fref=nf The issue is not refusing any kind of solution
Endnotes involvement-in-Syrias-civit-war.html &channe/Name=worldNews&utm_source=Facebook forces.
4 www.stratfor.com/analysis/will-russia-intervene-syria
al-assad/ 7 www.syriahr.com/en/2015/09/31121/ of-refugees-from-syria/ tion-led-by-the usa/ to an end of the war. Yes the Syrian people have suffered too much and most want a transition period towards a democratic Syria, but any kind of "realist solution" in the medium and long term cannot include Assad and other criminals with blood on their hands, otherwise we will see a continuation of the military conflict in Syria. Assad and accountable for their crimes. A similar process could be put in place to deal with the crimes of Islamic fundamentalist forces and other groups as well. We have to understand that to have any effective change it is not only Assad as an individual but the whole team of officials controlling security services, the army and various state apparatus which has to be swept We must oppose this new imperialist military intervention in Syria to save a crumbling dictatorship, which is resulting in new civilian casualties and suffering. The interventions of Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and various Iraqi Shi'a fundamentalist groups have caused more deaths in Syria, in addition to crushing a popular uprising. We also oppose the intervention of the Gulf monarchies and Turkey. For their own self-interest and to change the revolution into a sectarian war they supported Islamic fundamentalist groups that attack revolutionaries, civilians and soldiers from the FSA. As a long-term and unachieved demand (in a massive and organized way) of Syrian revolutionaries, we should also support the provision and delivery of arms with no political conditions attached from the West to democratic sections of the FSA and of the Kurdish forces to fight and struggle against the Assad regime and Islamic fundamentalist Internationalists should continue to support the pockets of hope that still exist in Syria composed of various democratic and progressive groups and movements opposing all sides of the counterrevolutions, the Assad regime and Islamic fundamentalist groups. They are the ones still maintaining the dreams of the beginning of the revolution and its objectives: democracy, social justice, equality and no to sectarianism. As a placard in the city of Zabadani says:"" Revolutions don't die, even if slaughtered. They're the land's fertilizer and give life even after a while".