12 Rivalry between the major capitalist powers, writes Phil Ward, is made worse by the global recession, and looks set to scupper the Climate Change Summit Residents of Linfen, reputed to be the most polluted city on earth Copenhagen débacle looms Any hopes that the December Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen will produce a treaty on greenhouse gas emission reductions are fading rapidly. Janos Pasztor, director of the UN Climate Change Support Team, admitted on 27 October that there was no agreement on targets for industrialised countries, or on funding to help developing countries limit their emissions. Neither was there any indication that the US Congress would agree President Obama's proposals for emissions abatement.
Even if targets are agreed, they will be wholly inadequate (see box). Obama's target for the US is to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. The US target from Kyoto in 1997 (but never ratified) was a 7% reduction on 1990 levels by 2010. Between 1990 and 2007 US emissions increased by 16.8%, from 6.1 to 7.1 billion tonnes CO,eq. So even if there is an agreement, for the US it is weaker than Kyoto and does not take account of the "extra" greenhouse gasses emitted as a result of the failure to ratify and meet the earlier target.
The EU has not met its Kyoto target either. Its curren plans are for a 20% reductior on 1990 levels by 2020, but up to half of these reductions can be offset by the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), whereby the financing of "low carbon" schemes in the global south can be construed as reducing emissions at home. The CDM has been shown all over the world to be utterly corrupt and tramples on the rights of local people in developing countries (see http:// www.thecornerhouse.org.ukl subject/climatel). Emission reductions resisted Behind the likely Copenhagen débacle lies the growing rivalry between the major capitalist powers, exacerbated by the global financial crisis, and the
CLIMATE CHANGE increasing economic clout of China, with its rapidly growing economy and large financial surplus. Thus, the EU's "commitments" on emissions reductions are conditional on there being a global deal that will prevent industries relocating to countries without carbon caps, while the US Congress is considering placing import tariffs on products from nations that do not have emissions reduction targets.
Both the Chinese and Indian governments have taken the same position adopted by the previous Bush Administration in the US. They will not reduce emissions, only the "carbon intensity" of their economies - the greenhouse gas emissions per unit of economic output. Over the medium to long term such reductions happen naturally, and have done since before James Watt improved steam engine efficiency from 1% to 3% in the 1770s. Since 1978, China's energy intensity has halved and
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CLIMATE CHANGE The Kern River Oil Field in Southern California has 8,000 "nodding donkeys" and has produced 2 billion barrels of oil since 1899. Supplanting the fossil fuel economy is a major task, especially in the more industrialised countries its consumption has tripled), so its target of another 20% intensity reduction in the next 5 years will probably be achieved. But it won't mean a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Responsibility and reparations There is agreement among socialists that the imperialist countries should acknowledge their responsibility for over 70% of historic greenhouse gas emissions. They should make "reparations" to developing countries for creating noncarbon technologies, as well as real commitments to drastically cut their emissions by 2050. Issues remain about how such aid is to be given, since the donors are a mendacious ruling class whose interest lies in maintaining their imperialist power, and the recipients a mendacious ruling class whose members are mainly preoccupied with selfenrichment.
There has also been agreement that greenhouse gas emissions per capita should be equalised between all countries, while overall reductions ("Contraction and Convergence") also occur. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calls for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of 80-95% on 1990 levels by 2050. Using 90%, that means reducing emissions from 4.3 tonnes of CO, (equivalent) to 0.43 tonnes per person, even
13 assuming there is no population increase in that time.
According to estimates from the World Resources Institute, only 40 out of 185 countries would be allowed to increase their greenhouse gas emissions, 30 of them in Africa and Bangladesh, the one with the largest population. The US would have to cut emissions by 98% and the UK by 95%. But most developing economies would have to cut their emissions as well: China by 90%, India by 62%, South Africa by 94%, Iran by 93% and Brazil by 73%. Cuba also emits much more than this IPCC maximum target for 2050 and would need a reduction of 80% from its
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14 current emissions of 2.19 tonnes per person. The fight for carbon-free development It is quite likely that the US, other imperialist countries and the media will use the failure of the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit to attack China in particular. This does not mean that the current trajectory of China's government, or that of other developing countries, should be immune from criticism from the left. Of course, supporters of the environmental and ecosocialist movement must concentrate on demanding that their own governments act against greenhouse gas emissions. But, just as we show solidarity with Chinese workers fighting the super-exploitation in the new industrial zones (mainly producing consumer goods for the "West"), or against the current state executions of Uighur protesters, we should also support those opposing environmental degradation and fighting for a carbon-free model of development.
There are currently thousands of environmental groups in China. Some have fought high profile campaigns, such as the ones against the Three Gorges Dam or the China River Diversion project. Others fight the increasing water and air pollution resulting from China's profit-driven economic growth. Sooner or later they will question the form of that growth and start to propose social, economic and political alternatives that are sustainable, just and egalitarian. Such alternatives will be easier to implement in a country whose infrastructure is not yet entirely built on an unsustainable basis. What the tells us to less than 350ppm. levels 25 metres higher. worldwide on 24 October.
CLIMATE CHANGE latest science The emission reduction target for 2050 set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was calculated to give a more than even chance of preventing a 20C rise in global temperatures. CO2eq levels must not rise above 450 parts per million (ppm). The IPC's climate models do not include feedback effects, such as greenhouse gas release from melting tundra, or loss of reflectivity as ice sheets melt. Recently NASA climatologist James Hansen and colleagues examined past temperature and greenhouse gas records from ice cores. They calculated the heating effects of the greenhouse gas changes and the consequent feedback mechanisms, producing a remarkable correlation with the measured temperatures, going back 800,000 years. This showed that, at current greenhouse gas levels, because of a time lag in warming the oceans and melting of ice, we can already expect a further 2oC rise in temperatures. They concluded that to restore the earth's heat balance, CO2 levels must be reduced from the current 385ppm Another group used the same ice cores to validate their estimates of atmospheric CO2 from the shells of fossilised marine creatures, giving a record of the last 20 million years They showed that present CO2 levels were last as high about 15 million years ago. Temperatures were 3oC higher and sea These studies provide the rationale for the global campaign for 350ppm (350.org) that organised 5200 climate actions In January James Hansen wrote to Barack Obama denouncing the "cap-and-trade" approach to emissions reductions, citing Japan's increasing coal use, offset by buying carbon credits from China. He called for a phasing out of coal power ("factories of death"), a carbon tax which is redistributed equally among taxpayers, punishing those with high carbon footprints, and "fourth generation nuclear power" that uses nuclear waste
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Post code Phone(s) Email Return to Respect PO Box 64078, London E1W 9BJ Resistance
POST CODE Amount E.. Date of 1st payment: Name of bank: ... Address of bank:. Account holder's name: A/c No: Signed.
Ten Reasons to Get the Troops Out of Afghanistan The death rate is rising on both sides. The 1 number of British troops who have died is now higher than those killed in 6 years in irag. Fifteen soldiers died in the first two weeks of July alone. No one keeps track of the number of Afghan dead but it numbers tens of thousands since 2001. In May more than 140 Afghans, mainly wornen and children, were killed in one air strike. This is an unwinnable war. The Taliban was 2 defeated in 2001 but is now growing in strength. Osama bin Laden has not been captured. The waris supposedly about detendino the karzai government. But his government is one of the most corrupt in the world. Neither he nor the occupation forces nave brougnt any real Improvements for the Afghan people. Gordon Brown claims the war is about 3 combing terrorism. But there was no terrorist threat to Britain before the war in Afghanistan. or bade me warn tree nest stoca wars and their consect ences that have mand Britain a target. Even Mi5 told the government we ta occupaten was ikewto increase not decrease terronem 4 war'. We have fought for eight years and the we are tole us mav nave to be our ou wears situation is getting worse. Children as yet unborn will be dying if this war is not stopped. Stop the War Coalition www.stopwar.org.uk Standing order mandate I wish to take out a standing order for Respect Renewal Conference. .. per month. Amount in words: 60601051, the sum of the value indicated above.
15 The war is spreading to Pakistan, which is a 5
nuclear state, opening up the prospect of ar even more terrible conflict. 6 Life is getting worse for most Afghans under
occupation. There is a huge refugee problem. Corruption is rife. While Tony Blair promised in 2001 we wil not walk away' Afghanistan remains one of the poorest countries in the world. According to the United Nations life expectancy has falien for Afghans since 2003. Far more is spent on the war and the military than is spent on reconstruction. Aid meant to help the Afghans is not getting through to those who need it. Britain has spent £4.6 bilion on the wars in 7 Afghanistan and Iraq every year- enough
money to create 200,000 graduate jobs annually. We should be funding these jobs, not wasting more money on war. Unemployment must not become a recrunting sergeant for the army. 8 More troops or helicopters won't help. The
NATO forces are not losing because they don't have the equipment but because they are in Afghanistan. vie were told unal ine war in Atchanistan was 9 to liberate women, But women's lives have not
improved. Death in childbirth is rising. The narza govemment even ted to pass a law allowing rape in marriage. Despite all the talk about troops heiping girls to go to school, less than a third of Afghan girls are in school and 1035 ian 10% can read and write, years alter the tako the Talibar The majority of Afghans do not want the war 10
ana occupation. Ine majority of British people think the troops should come home by Xmas al we alest in two recene cols ao% bal are . and the same day each month thereafter Post code Sort code: Date
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CLIMATE CHANGE SEMINAR 16
Timed for the run-up to the UN Climate talks in Copenhagen, the Climate and Capitalism seminar organised by Green Left and Socialist Resistance in September proved a fruitful collaboration. Speakers mapped out a vision of what a just, egalitarian, kind-tothe-planet society might look like, how to fight for it, and why capitalism has to be overthrown to get there. On the following pages we print four of the key speeches from the seminar. CLIMATE EMERGENCY